Pakistan & the J-10.

[mercurion]

Seeing as how China's J-10 programme seems to be humming along nicely, I wonder if the Pakistani's are eyeing that aircraft with lust? Based on previous purchase patterns, it would make perfect sense if Pakistan purchased the J-10 . Anyone know if China & Pakistan are in talks together about this?

[Honest Abdul]

SAhould be a good complement for Mirage 2000-5 PAF will buy.

[BearCat]

Pakistan is committed to the FC-1/Super 7 which if the project goes according to plan will eventually result in technology transfer and an assembly line in Pakistan.

The J-10 will not only be relatively expensive for Pakistan but as a new aircraft with a new production process, I doubt it can be made at a clip that can cover the PLAAF's own needs much less the export market.

I do see the J-10 in the PAF eventually. Maybe a decade or so after its induction into the Chinese air arms, when the production lines are in place. But it'll be in limited numbers and complementary to the FC-1 in the Pakistani Air Force.

[mercurion]

My perception is that Pakistan's need for an advanced fighter is acute, given the current state of tension, and that the J-10 would probably be the cheapest of any current/new generation fighter on offer and so more within Pakistan's grasp.

Even with the recent introduction of the FC-1, I would think that the F-16 would still be more capable/advanced, and Pakistan has precious little of them.

At any rate, it will be interesting to see how the world responds to large numbers of J-10's entering squadron service in China and elsewhere, if they decide to export it.

[BearCat]

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 15-06-02 AT 08:14 PM (GMT)]>>My perception is that Pakistan's need for an advanced fighter is acute, given the current state of tension, and that the J-10 would probably be the cheapest of any current/new generation fighter on offer >>and so more within Pakistan's grasp.

Yes, Pakistan does need a new advance fighter right now to replace its aging F-16a fleet. The problem is the J-10 isn't in production yet and won't be available for export until the lines are set up which could take some time.
Pakistan is also looking at the Mirage 2000 and is hoping for release of the more recent F-16 blocks as a reward for its help in the American war on terror.
But in the end, everything depends on the budget and what's available economically and politically.


>Even with the recent introduction of the FC-1, I would think that the >F-16 would still be more capable/advanced, and Pakistan has precious >little of them.

Oh most definitely, most Pakistani sources I've seen state that they are looking for a plane that is about "70 percent of a F-16" in the FC-1.

>At any rate, it will be interesting to see how the world responds to >large numbers of J-10's entering squadron service in China and >elsewhere, if they decide to export it.


China will almost certainly export it once they have a domestic engine (perhaps the WS-10A) in place. The initial batch will probably be built with 100 Russian-built AL-31F engines reportedly delivered to China in early 2001. These won't be exportable and are going into the PLAAF.

You won't see a flood of the J-10 into the world market for some time. Or even ever. The J-10 is an 4th generation medium tech ac. I can't see it competing in that market which is now occupied by the Mig 29, Su-27, advance blocks F-16, F-18 and the Mirage 2000.

While the low end market probably won't be able to support a J-10.
So the FC-1, if it's a success, would be China's entry into the low end market replacing today's Mig 21 equivalents. If the FC-1 turns out to be a dud, then we might see the F-7MF which is a Chengdu J-7 with a radar nose cone and side intakes with bvr capabilities.

Of course, this is just speculation until both the J-10 and FC-1 projects run their courses.

[crobato]

If it is J-10 with AL31FN engine, I doubt the Russians would allow it to be exported to Pakistan due to Indian objections. The Pakistanis will have to wait till China develops a domestic engine suitable for the J-10.

They have to develop a domestic engine for the FC-1, but then the FC-1 only needs 8,000kg plus thrust while the J-10 needs 12,500 kg thrust at least. It is easier and more attainable to develop a lower thrust engine to meet a required engine life standard for obvious reasons. It's not about having the ability to design an engine and create the required thrust---the real headache is how to make it last (not just like 300 or 800 hours mean time before overhauls, but something like 1500 to 2000 hours). Even if there are rumors of WS10 or WP15 engined J-10s flying around, the FC-1 may probably get a reliable domestic engine first, probably a variant of the WP-14 or Kunlun engine---the WP14 already in service and is probably China's first fighter jet engine without being an evolved copy of someone's design.

Chengdu factories will probably hard pressed to meet the 300 J-10 needed by the PLAAF before 2010. I don't think China will be willing to export the plane before that date.

As a note, the Kunlun engine reported on May press releases is most probably a different engine from the one reported to be given a greenlight on an April press release. Kunlun engine is related to Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, but this other project is said to be located on Hunan province.

[BearCat]

Thanks Crobato, on the Kunlun info.

What are the current Chinese jet engine programs going on right now?

Could you add to what I have below:

WP-13F turbojet (13,200lb w/ afterburning) J-7MG
uprated WP-13F turbojet (14,330lb w/ afterburning) J-7E

WP14 turbojet (16,344lb w/ afterburning) J-8II

WP15 turbojet?

WS-6A H-7/JH-7
WS-9 (copy of the RR Spey TurboJet) JH-7

WS10 (copy of Su-27's AL-31 turbofan) later versions of J-11?
WS10A J-10?

Hunan Kunlun?
Copy of the Garrett turbofan for the K-8?

[crobato]

My list includes these. Some data I still need to verify:

WP-6 over 3000kg thrust, used on J-6
WP-6A over 3500kg thrust, used on J-6 and Fantan
WP-6B nearly 4000kg thrust, used only on Fantan
WP-7 6100kg thrust, for J-7
WP-7A for J-8
WP-13F 6600kg thrust derived from Tumansky R11-300
WP-13AII 6800kg thrust used on J8-II
WP-13FI 7300kg thrust, used on J-7D, R25-300 equivalent
WP-13FII 7900kg thrust, supposedly for J-8III
WP-14 7500kg thrust, used on J-8C
WP-15 27,000lbs thrust, AL-31F/GE-F110/PW F100 class engine, competing for J-11
WP-15A WP-15 modified for J-10
WP-15CA WP-15CA with AXEN (Axis symmetric thrust vector)

WS-9 Spey Turbofan copy
WS-10 132,000kg thrust, AL-31F/GE-F110/PW F100 class engine for J-11
WS-10A WS-10 for J-10
WS-10CA WS-10A with AXEN
WS-11 Small turbofan for K-8 (AL-21 class)
WS-12 GE404/Klimov RD33 class of engine (18,000lbs/8000kg thrust)

'Hunan' engine could be WS-10
'Kunlun' engine could be an 8,000kg thrust engine

Other than the old engines, all new engines mentioned here should be taken with a bit of salt, since I picked these up from Ding Sheng, CMF, etc,.

There should be one turbojet engine of the 12,500kg thrust based on the Tumansky R29/R35 engine (used on MiG-23), but it didn't work out.

WP-15 is interesting because it's associated with the XXJ/J-12 project. It's probably a lighter engine than the WS-10 or AL-31F, with slightly less power, but small and light enough that you could use two of them.

Also, I don't think WP-15 or WS-10 are clones of the AL-31F. They are more like equivalents in the same thrust, weight and size class.

[Azaan]

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 16-06-02 AT 01:47 PM (GMT)]You bet the ***** are going to be interested in this!!! As the West closes the doors on Pakistans requests for arms they are going to be left with only one choice from where to source their stuff. China apart, the ***** have been trying to cultivate the Ukranians as suppliers too - note the purchase of tanks as also the engines for their indigenous Al-Khalid MBT.

Wonder if they might look to the Ukranians as engine suppliers for the J-10 too.

[BearCat]

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 16-06-02 AT 05:40 PM (GMT)] Fantastic stuff, Crobato!

You really should do a speculative piece on engines for the China-Defense site.
Following engine development is a quiet but critical piece of aviation watching. So far, what you've posted is the most exhaustive list I've feasted on, with or without a shaker of salt! :)

"WS-10 132,000kg thrust, AL-31F/GE-F110/PW F100 class engine for J-11"

You must mean either 13,200kg or 132,000lbs?


"WS-11 Small turbofan for K-8 (AL-21 class)"

I've heard some reports that the PLAAF is waiting for the K-8 to be installed with a domestic engine before major orders, while others said they've dropped the K-8 completely because of the large amount of foreign components and are proceeding with a newer advance trainer( L-15) that'll dispense with the intermediate role of the K-8. Any educated guesses as to the future of this project?

Also Pakistan has stopped receiving units after the initial 6, is the K-8 no longer in their future plans?
The K-8 assembly line sold to Egypt looked like a boost for the program, but that line uses the Garrett TFE31-2A-2A turbofan which is embargoed to the Chinese.

The K-8, although not as sexy as the J-10 or FC-1, has been a favorite of mine for some time. Since the Egypt transfer, however, there hasn't been much news on it.

[crobato]

I mean about 13,200kg or 132,000kn for the WS10. WS10A and WS10CA should be the same.

Data is too speculative and I got this collection from bits and pieces from DS and other Chinese websites. There is no solid confirmation or information on many of these newer engines to make a solid article about them.

I am quite interested on the upengine potential of the J-10 and FC-1. There is potential for an AL-31F size engine to go up to 15,000kg thrust and over, and an RD93 type engine to 9,000 or 10,000kg thrust (22,000lbs and over).

[Shalav]

>I mean about 13,200kg or 132,000kn for the WS10.

13,200 kgf = 129.45 [u]kN of thrust! Just FYI.

"132,000 kn" should be read as 132,000,000 N! Thats [/b]132 MILLION[/b] Newtons or 13,460,254 kg thrust!

Looks like the WS10 will have the thrust equal to that of the X-wing's engines if it ever gets into production!!!

BTW you do realise 132 MILLION Newtons of thrust is about 4 times the thrust produced by the Saturn V rocket, which got man to the moon. OR about 3 times the thrust of the MOST POWERFUL ENGINE ever made by man!

There you go with your exagerations AGAIN!!

http://www.hrw.com/science/si-science/earth/spacetravel/spacerace/SpaceRace/sec300/sec380.html

At-least get your math right.

ROFLMAO.

cheers.

[Vympel]

Oh give the man a break it was just a typo! :)

[Shalav]

[updated:LAST EDITED ON 17-06-02 AT 03:55 AM (GMT)]I know. Just couldn't resist!

:7 :7 :7 :7

[crobato]

Hehe. I get what I deserved for typing that in the middle of the night.

[mixtec]

In general discussian theres a thread called "political leaders" where keltic makes the statement that if the US would stop medeling with chineese/taiwan affairs by supplying arms, that these too countrys would have peacefully reunited by now. Cant argue with that logic, I know if the US was prevented in building arms in WW2, we would have peacefully united with germany and japan. But ignoring my opinion, lets say everyone were to agree with keltic and taiwan was reunited with china. Taiwan is a well off country of 18 million that builds the ching kuo. The ching kuo is very much a 4th generation fighter, and if the US didnt restrict engine power, it would easily equal be to the hornet or eurocanards. Ive suggested before that taiwan should sell the ching kuo to pakistan, and the reaction has always been, ha ha, absolutely impossible that they could sell that jet with US technolgy. But if taiwan was made part of china, it would become chineese technolgy. And can you amagine how well the J-10 project would progress with the taiwaneese aerospace industry?

[crobato]

The Ching Kuo is actually a very sophisticated fighter in terms of construction and material, heavily using composites. It would have required the precision machinery and quality control processes that China didn't have during the early nineties but only started to have in the late nineties.

Pakistan does have good technology in metallurgy but not in composites, which is why they insist their version of FC-1 would be all metal. Ching Kuo or F-CK1 could not fit this shoe due to its extensive use of composites, even though its rough specs are similar to the FC-1.

Taiwan is ahead of China in production processes and technology except in some strategic areas such as tanks, rocket and missile technology. In aeronautics, the one thing Taiwan does not have in any advantage when it comes to China is jet engines. The most it can make from the domestic AIDC F125 turbofans are 10,000lbs thrust, whereas mainland Chinese projects has reached the 16,000-17,000lbs range with the WP-14 and are gunning for higher targets such 13,200kg on the WS10. There are even more ambitious projects rumored in development.

I think with the J-10, the mainland China has only reached to the same level of production status as the Taiwanese has reached in the early nineties with the Ching Kuo. The next stage in the Ching Kuo's evolution, other than the LIFT proposal, is the Strike variant with more powerful engines and is expected to make its appearance in 2007. Having more powerful engines would close the Ching Kuo's gap with the J-10, although I don't see how it would exceed it.

For the Ching Kuo to hold a much more powerful engine like an AL-31F class engine, the airframe would have to be so radically changed it would be better to start with a new plane. The only result would only be reinventing the J-10. There is no point in making another fourth generation fighter; unified China would focus on a fifth gen fighter project.

The problem of the F-CK1 is that it may cost more than an FC-1---$25 million at least in 2005 dollars vs. the FC-1's project $15 million for roughly the same performance. Although the FC-1 has too many unknowns yet, the Ching Kuo's price is scrapping with the J-10's price, and that could be a problem. A unified China may end up scrapping the Ching Kuo project, because it would have been redundant and offer too little future potential. For starters the IDF does not have much of a payload and its internal fuel capacity is rather small (even less than an FC-1; 2000kg vs 2300kg). AIDC would do better upgrading the FC-1 with its know how like composites and the GD-53 avionics to create a numerically important fighter.

The problem of the Ching Kuo is that you're using two engines to create the same meager output as one engine, like in the FC-1 or J-10. The two engines would cost more to build, more complex to maintain, and use more fuel due to greater friction from double the parts than a single engine. A single engined fighter would have been more efficient. Add the small internal fuel capacity, and you have a range even shorter than the mainland China's fighters.

The only place the Ching Kuo would have left in a unified China is the advanced trainer LIFT role. The IDF is good for defending a small country as a point defense fighter, but as an interceptor for a much larger unified China, it just does not have the range. The Taiwanese knowhow could blend with the mainland Chinese knowhow to do a fifth generation fighter, but there will be a sense of rivalry and competition because the mainland Chinese pride in factories like Chengdu Aircraft Corporation (who makes the J-10s) and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (who makes the Flankers) ain't going to accept taking lessons from AIDC.

[mercurion]

Iran has a flourishing idigenous industry based on reverse engineering, and they have faired alot better than the Yanks gave them credit for. Has Pakistan got any ties with Iran or have they thought of sourcing technology from there and combining it with Chinese hardware? (eg J-10 + F-14 engine copy = Hot Fighter)

[crobato]

Keep thinking dirty thoughts like that, and China might not sell Pakistan the J-10.

That because China has some kind of arrangement with Israel, who, next to Russia, is China's biggest arms and technology supplier.

It is for that reason I don't believe China will ever sell Arabs or Moslems weapons that has the potential for offensive use against Israel. Patrol boats and anti ship missiles seem okay to be sold to Iran because it's hard to see how these things can be used against Israel. Pakistan's own ballistic missiles are likely to be indigenous, and not copied from Chinese designs for that reason.

At the same time, the US has put the heat on China for selling Iran C801s and C802 antiship missiles, and China has conceeded to that. Iran however, who really has some smart guys, played the Chinese trick on the Chinese by reverse engineering the Chinese missiles instead, and then sought an alliance with North Korea to provide improved guidance systems.

As a note, Iran is developing its own battle tank and recently, North Korea has annoucned that it has finished developing a "top notch" battle tank of its own.

[BearCat]

I'm intrigued by the possibilty of a F-14 clone which would be a coup of monumental proportions by Iran.
There are rumors floating all over the web about an Iranian developed fighter, the Azarakhsh. It's been discussed to some length in ACIG. It's probably a cloned F-5 if it exists, but who knows, it might be the F-14 :)

A clone or a variation of the F-14, even dispensing with the swing wing, would be a massive undertaking.

With the plethora of US a/c from the Shah's airforce, F-4, F-5, F-14, etc., Iran had a wealth of machines to study over the years.

[Rabie]

1) argh "f-14 engines in a j-10" the tf-30 engines were the wortst bit of the f-14.

2) pakistan is tied more to china, but got away with comercial turbofans in the k-8 so me thingks they'l lstay more western

3) as is seams iran has managed to prodcue most spares for its entire fleet of planes. they are now jsut started the f-5 copy (tom posted a limited photo exculsive on acig). they already have chopper prodcution underway. in the future they wll IMHO introduce the f5 copy and their 2 jet trainers (under development too). sorry to the sukhoi mafia but su sales seam unlikly. apparently iran is holding up russian puchases till the nuke reactor is built. chinese stuff is out cos iran was so disgusted with teh base model j-7s it got it was happy to stick to american planes.

rabie :9